THE climate crisis is happening now. We are in a crucial decade in the century that will make or break human civilisation. 

It will not follow a path of Fabian gradualism. In physics as in politics, long periods of apparent stasis, in which forces build, hit a tipping point, setting off sudden, dramatic shifts; unimaginable until they happen, but making the previous period unimaginable once they have. 

China aims to build a moderately prosperous socialist society as an ecological civilisation, expressed in the “Two Mountains” proposition — that green mountains with clear water are as valuable as mountains of gold. 

So, as China grows, it will be green; not socialism with a green component, but green socialism. As one Canadian commentator put it: “China is pushing power sector transformation through central planning. It can build clean infrastructure quickly.” 

So, if you have socialist planning, you can put social and ecological priorities in command in a way that the West can’t. 

“China sees the old fossil fuel growth model as … unable to sustain long-term prosperity.” 

If the socialism that’s built isn’t green, it can’t survive. Investment in solar power, electric vehicles, batteries, and wind power is now the core driver of China’s economy.

• China has 17.2 per cent of the world’s people but half of the world’s solar, wind power and EVs. 
• Last year, China installed as much renewable power as the US has in its entire history.
• Three out of four offshore wind turbines in 2025 are being installed in China.
• This April, China installed solar power at a rate equivalent to a new power station every eight minutes.
• Enormous solar and wind farms are being built. One of these, in Tibet, is the size of Chicago.

China now has 57 per cent of its electricity generated by renewables, compared to 50.8 per cent for Britain. China’s domestic emissions are peaking, even as demand for energy increases. Emissions were down 1.6 per cent, and coal consumption dropped by 2.6 per cent, in the first half of this year. 

The International Energy Agency expects China to hit peak oil in 2027. As China had driven two-thirds of global oil demand growth from 2013 to 2023, it is set to plateau then drop before 2030.

This makes investment in fossil fuel exploration or power plants increasingly risky. Banks that have traditionally put huge resources into them are beginning to get cold feet. This is putting the US fossil fuel drive at odds with markets. China’s decision to stop coal investment overseas has been pivotal. 

• China’s clean energy exports in 2024 shaved 1 per cent off global emissions outside of China.
• Three-quarters of global fossil fuel demand is now in nations where this has already peaked.
• More than 60 per cent of emerging and developing economies like Brazil and Vietnam are leapfrogging the US and Europe in clean electrification.
• Pakistan doubled its previous grid capacity with new rooftop solar last year.
• Solar panel exports from China to Africa are up 60 per cent this year. 

Three factors underlie this. 

Physics: fossil fuels are wasteful. Two-thirds of their energy is lost to heat or inefficiency. Solar, electric motors, and heat pumps are two to four times as efficient. 

Economics: as fossil fuel reserves deplete, they become more expensive to access. The more electric technology is manufactured, the cheaper and better it becomes.

Geopolitics: the old energy system left three-quarters of humanity dependent on expensive, imported fuels. Electric technologies unlock local resources. 

So, the Western model of development is outmoded, and the future does not, and cannot, look like the US. China is not following the US in a race to the bottom. Ma Zhaoxu, China’s vice-foreign minister, says: “Regardless of how the international situation evolves, China’s proactive actions to address climate change will not slow down.”

In rolling back Joe Biden’s attempt to suck green investment into the US, Donald Trump has abandoned the future. 

This doesn’t simply involve domestic economic self-sabotage, with more expensive fossil fuel plants pushing up bills, offshore wind farms cancelled, imperilling supply in regions like New England, but also a wrecking ball taken to disaster emergency relief and scientific research monitoring the climate.

As the world’s leading petrostate, US policy now actively suppresses the truth about climate change. Their aim is to lock as much of the world as possible into fossil fuel bondage.

Success for the US would lock the world, and the US itself, into climate collapse. But, while the US still makes some of the weather — literally in this case — it’s no longer able to determine the direction of the world.

As climate scientist and 350.org founder Bill McKibben puts it in his article Here Comes the Sun: “Big Oil spent more money on last year’s election cycle in my country than they’ve ever done before. And it’s why they’re now being rewarded with a whole variety of measures designed to slow this transition down, which may succeed.

“I mean, it’s possible that 20 years from now, the US will be a kind of museum of internal combustion that other people will visit to see what the olden days were like. But it’s not going to slow the rest of the world down much, I don’t think.” 

There is a tension in the British government, with its attempt to dodge tariffs by bending the knee and committing to an annual £77 billion black hole in “defence” spending, and the stated direction of the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero to make Britain an “electrostate.” This involves some co-operation with China, but would require more investment than the military spend will allow. 

Reform UK and the Conservative Party aim at consolidating energy dependence on the US, no matter how ruinous the cost. As the climate crisis deepens, the cost of being shackled to the US and its cold war stance against China will become more and more apparent — a point we have to make in and through the unions, Labour, the Greens and Your Party.

Paul Atkin is a climate activist based in London. He’s among the speakers at the Socialist China Conference 2025 taking place this Saturday at Bolivar Hall, 54 Grafton Way, London W1T 5DL. Other speakers include Robert Griffiths, Mick Wallace, George Galloway, Jenny Clegg, Francisco Dominguez, Li Jingjing, and many more — register at bit.ly/chinaconf.