EUROPEAN leaders want to drastically increase defence spending and prepare their economies for war. There are plans to introduce (for now) voluntary conscription and to install a nuclear shield. Several countries are willing to send troops to Russia’s neighbouring countries, including Ukraine.

Boris Pistorius, the former German minister of defence, has declared that his country will be “ready for war” (Kriegstuchtigkeit) by 2029. The hatchet has been dug up.

“We have been betrayed by Trump and are threatened by Putin; therefore, we must increase our military efforts and prepare for war.” This is the narrative that the European elite presents to us and that is widely spread in the mainstream media.

However, this narrative conceals the true reasons and underlying causes of this war fever.

Europe’s comprehensive decline

The militarisation of Europe is taking place within the context of a broader economic crisis. Since the financial crisis of 2008, the European economy has struggled to find new growth paths. The Covid crisis delivered a heavy blow to the economy, and because of the economic sanctions against Russia, we have forfeited our access to cheap energy.

Due to an obsession with austerity, governments have neglected sectors necessary for productivity development, such as education and science. Meanwhile, financial oligarchs have not sufficiently invested their monopoly profits in new technologies to keep up with competition from the US and China.

As a result, Europe is lagging behind other parts of the world, both technologically and economically.

Geopolitically, things are not going well either. Europe and the US have failed both to turn Russia into a semi-colony after the fall of the USSR and to bring about a capitalist regime change in China.

The West hoped that by allowing China into the World Trade Organisation and investing heavily in the country, capitalist forces would grow so strong that they would eventually take power from the Communist Party. That was wishful thinking.

By slavishly following the US, Europe failed to construct a balanced security structure after the fall of the USSR, one that also included Russia.

Now, both Russia and China have become formidable opponents which cannot be trifled with.

Particularly under China’s influence, countries in the global South are also forming an increasing counterweight to the dominance of the North through Brics.

The battle has begun

It is within this context that the US elite, led by Donald Trump and Elon Musk, have launched an aggressive campaign to safeguard the absolute supremacy of the US (Make America Great Again), even at the expense of its closest allies.

This means that a struggle between the US and other imperialist great powers has erupted. At the World Economic Forum in Davos, Ursula von der Leyen put it as follows: “The co-operation-based world order, as we envisioned it 25 years ago, has not materialised. Instead, we have entered a new era of fierce geopolitical competition.

“The world’s largest economies are competing for access to raw materials, new technologies and global trade routes. From artificial intelligence to clean technology, from quantum computers to space, from the Arctic to the South China Sea — the race has begun.”

The driving force behind this race is the pursuit of maximum profit and the expansion of Western monopoly capital. That is what is at stake and that is what it is ultimately all about. To engage in this race, the military card is being played. Or, as former German chancellor Gerhard Schroder put it: “A country only truly counts on the international stage if it is also willing to go to war.”

Poor excuses for war

The main excuse for the current war fever — that Russia poses a military threat — is baseless. Moscow is not seeking expansion at all. According to top experts like Jeffrey Sachs and John Mearsheimer, the invasion of Ukraine was Moscow’s response to Nato’s eastward expansion and the militarisation of Ukraine. Moscow saw this as an existential threat.

In terms of conventional warfare, Russia is unable to defeat Europe. The Kremlin has already become bogged down in the much weaker Ukraine. And if a confrontation between Europe and Russia were to occur, we would be in a nuclear scenario — an endgame that no-one wants.

Building a war economy

In other words, the current military tensions are not so much the result of geopolitical conflicts with Russia, China and now even the US, but rather rooted in the Western monopoly capital’s drive for maximum profit and expansion.

To secure the profits of Western monopolies, investments and markets abroad, as well as the supply of cheap raw materials from those countries must be guaranteed. And for that, a strong military apparatus is indispensable — to bring defiant countries to order if necessary.

Militarisation also boosts the economy. A war economy does not depend on the purchasing power of the population but on the choices of political leaders. Military purchases can (temporarily) provide some breathing space for parts of the industry, although this comes at the expense of other sectors. This is what Ronald Reagan attempted in the 1980s with his Star Wars programme and what Hitler did in the 1930s.

In Belgium, and likely elsewhere, militarisation may be accompanied by an unprecedented wave of privatisation. Part of the money for military expenditures could be obtained by selling off national property or parts of it. Militarisation as a lever for privatisation.

This war economy serves the purpose of genuine war preparation. During the cold war, European countries maintained large standing armies. After the fall of the USSR, mobile intervention forces were deployed for rapid interventions, as we have seen in Libya and Syria.

Now, there are plans for the reintroduction of conscription, the expansion of military infrastructure, and prolonged stationing abroad, such as in the Baltic states and Ukraine. Other options are also being considered, including discussions about a nuclear umbrella.

Many signs indicate that a world war is becoming a real possibility in the eyes of financial and economic elites.

Dire consequences

Such militarisation has far-reaching consequences for society. The money has to come from somewhere. Currently, Europe spends about 2 per cent of its GDP on defence. If it wants to reach the 5 per cent benchmark, it will have to spend approximately €500 billion more annually on defence.

With right-wing governments, a sharp increase in defence budgets will inevitably come at the expense of both social spending and the Green Deal, which has an annual budget of €86bn.

Militarisation will likely be accompanied by an unprecedented wave of privatisation in the economy.

The establishment of a genuine European army also brings a significant democratic deficit. The command structure will be at the European level. Soon, neither national governments nor parliaments but Eurocrats will be the ones to decide whether our boys and girls will be sent to the front lines.

Finally, the militarisation of our economies and societies will only further escalate tensions on the European continent. Instead of building a balanced security structure, we are launching a dangerous arms race and stoking hostility toward the Russian nuclear power.

At the crossroads

Europe faces a historic choice. The process of militarisation comes with enormous economic costs, social deterioration, delays in the green transition, and a democratic deficit, while the risk of a larger conflict becomes increasingly real.

Is this militarisation truly in the interest of European citizens, or is it merely in the interest of economic elites and the arms industry? Will we allow ourselves to be swept up in war fever, or will we choose prosperity, sustainability, and a balanced security structure on the continent?

Will we follow the US in its imperialist and militaristic logic, or will we build an independent European project based on respectful co-operation with countries in the global South? The coming years will be crucial in answering this question.