THE announcement by US President Donald Trump last week that the US plans to restart nuclear testing has been a wake-up call that the threat of nuclear war is real and accelerating.

Trump did not make clear if he was referring to nuclear-explosive testing — carried out underground or in the atmosphere — or flight testing of nuclear-capable missiles, and the news was met with widespread condemnation at the potential overturning of the 30-year moratorium on both underground and atmospheric testing under the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT).

Since then, US Energy Secretary Chris Wright has been forced to make a statement that the tests, “right now,” will not be nuclear explosions. However, Trump has been wanting to restart underground nuclear testing since his first term as president.

At that time there was significant opposition from Congress and from within the US National Nuclear Security Administration. In the run-up to the 2025 presidential elections, Trump’s former National Security Adviser Robert O’Brien publicly advocated restarting nuclear testing. Following Trump’s election, according to the Bulletin for Atomic Scientists, the selection of candidate for the role of administrator of the National Nuclear Security Administration, now Brandon McDonald Williams, was predicated on their support for restarting nuclear testing.

The US also maintains the ability to conduct underground nuclear tests at the Nevada National Security Site. According to the Bulletin, Trump could fast-track an underground test from 36 months down to 10 or even six months, by declaring a national emergency to waive statutory and regulatory restrictions. The purpose of the test would be “to send a geopolitical signal to US adversaries.”

Certainly, Trump’s announcement has already sent a signal, making clear the US is preparing to drive a new nuclear arms race. This will only intensify the reckless nuclear brinksmanship between him and Vladimir Putin over Ukraine. It will also accelerate the US’s military confrontation against China.

If Trump does move to restart explosive testing this would have devastating consequences, meaning other nuclear weapons states either feel emboldened or compelled to resume testing. It could also give a green light for non-nuclear weapons states to consider testing them, driving nuclear proliferation.

Recommencing underground testing would release radiation into the atmosphere. It would cause cancers, leukaemia and birth defects amongst inhabitants living around test sites, like the Nevada “Downwinders,” who have been exposed to radiation since the US started testing nuclear weapons in the 1950s at the test site.

US driving nuclear proliferation and arms race

The US’s aggressive, first-strike nuclear posture, its expansion of its missile defence system and its use of bilateral military agreements are driving global nuclear rearmament and proliferation. Now renamed by Trump the “Golden Dome” in reference to Israel’s Iron Dome, US missile defence is a vast global network of bases expanded over decades into eastern Europe and the Asia-Pacific.

Far from being a defensive system as portrayed in the film House of Dynamite, US missile defence enables first-strike nuclear attacks to be carried out by the US without fear of retaliation. Russia has consistently warned of the destabilising effects of the system.

Trump and Nato have been pressuring member states across Europe to significantly increase military spending to fund a massive rearmament programme including expanding “by 400 per cent” missile defence systems. This is so that European Nato member states take on militarily confronting Russia as part of the Ukraine war, while the US administration refocuses its overwhelming military might on China — a continuation of Barack Obama’s “pivot to Asia” policy started in 2010.

Trump’s “pivot” also includes pressuring political leaders and countries across the Asia-Pacific to increase military spending, and expand the Golden Dome. For instance, last week the newly elected Japanese prime minister assured Trump that the country will increase military spending to 2 per cent of GDP, two years ahead of schedule. Last year, Japan also signed an agreement with the US to buy 400 Tomahawks for its JS Chokai, an Aegis-equipped guided-missile destroyer which will enable Japan to launch missile attacks deep inside China.

Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-te has also announced plans to raise military spending and accelerate plans for a multi-layered “T-dome” missile defence system. This follows an $8 billion military package from the US administration in 2024. And, of course, the trilateral Aukus agreement between the US, Britain and Australia, enables Australia — a non-nuclear weapons state — to possess nuclear-powered submarines. Trump has also just approved an agreement with South Korea, allowing Seoul to build nuclear-powered submarines.

This dangerous escalation in the US’s ongoing confrontation with China has seen China respond by increasing and modernising its nuclear arsenal. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (Sipri), China now has 600 nuclear warheads, an increase of 100 on 2024.

The US’s role in driving proliferation and the arms race is underlined by its spending — which is more than all the other nuclear weapons states combined. According to the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN), in 2024, the US spent $56.8bn on nuclear weapons — more than half the $100bn total of all nuclear states. And the US accounts for the greatest increases, accounting for 80 per cent of the total increase in spending on nuclear weapons in 2023.

The need for global nuclear disarmament has never been more urgent

While Trump oversees this major nuclear escalation, global arms control infrastructure is crumbling. Treaties like the Intermediate Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF) have been disbanded while the extended START Treaty is due to expire in February 2026.

While the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) has been signed by all the nuclear weapons states, it has not been ratified by the US, Russia, China or Israel.

There needs to be greater global pressure to create the diplomatic space for new treaties to be established, to push for nuclear weapons states to abide by nuclear disarmament obligations under the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and for the ratification of the CTBT by all the nuclear weapons states.

Accelerating a nuclear arms race will push the world to the brink of annihilation, the consequences of which could be absolutely catastrophic. A nuclear war would destroy huge sections of the planet, wreaking devastation to the ecosystem and creating global famine for the survivors. 

Even without a nuclear bomb being launched, a nuclear arms race will push millions more people into poverty and accelerate the climate crisis.

Trump’s nuclear arms race must be stopped. It is absolutely critical that we rachet up the political pressure to make these world leaders — including the British government — step back from this nuclear escalation. Now more than ever, we need global nuclear disarmament.

Sophie Bolt is general secretary of Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament.

On Saturday November 22, CND is hosting Stop Nuclear Expansion — Reverse the War Drive, a day of debate and activism bringing together a powerful alliance of the peace, environmental, student, and trade unions movements. Register at tinyurl.com/ReverseWarDrive.