ALMOST 15 years ago, historian Alfred McCoy wrote predicting that “the demise of the US as the global superpower could come … in 2025.” He was probably a little early in his prediction, though there is still time for him to be proven correct.

McCoy envisaged a world in which China, India, Iran and Russia would all “provocatively challenge” the dominion of the “fading superpower” and that the US would be riven with “violent clashes and divisive debates” and run by a “far-right patriot” president threatening military and economic punishment for anyone who dared challenge US hegemony.

So prescient was his prediction that McCoy revisited his analysis in The Nation last November and found little cause for changing his forecast.
 
However, in one key aspect, I suspect he may be wrong. McCoy expects that the “American century ends in silence,” with the world paying little attention despite the threats and belligerence of Trump and his cohort, but the signs are that the US empire will not die quietly.
 
So far, the reaction of most Western nations and China to Trump’s economic threats has been fairly resolute: Canada responded to his 25 per cent duty on most Canadian imports in a reciprocal manner and is negotiating a new market with the EU for its energy in the face of the 10 per cent tariff imposed on that.

China has imposed retaliatory tariffs on US goods, Mexico’s president Claudia Sheinbaum faced down Trump, threatening tit-for-tat tariffs and warning that her country would simply sell its products elsewhere.