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Nato, nukes and a new cold war
In the second of his three-part series on how the new Labour government’s foreign policy is likely to shape up, KENNY COYLE examines David Lammy’s writings on Asia and the Indo-Pacific region – where the risk of military flashpoints is high

DAVID LAMMY praises Ernest Bevin for his key role in the early years of the cold war.

He says that Bevin: “brought us the Nato alliance that is still the bedrock of our security and fought for a nuclear bomb as he put it with the Union Jack on top. A deterrent that remains a key element of Britain’s foreign and security policy today.”

The reality, of course, is that Britain’s “independent” nuclear forces are almost entirely dependent on the Stars and Stripes rather than the “Butcher’s Apron,” and Nato’s military command structure, rather than its toothless political one, has been under continued US control since 1949.

Courting India

Lammy makes a particular point of improving relations with Narendra Modi’s India, clearly this is part of Western efforts to woo India away from its close relations with Russia and to maintain a level of mistrust between Delhi and Beijing.

He writes: “To deliver prosperity at home, Britain must re-establish itself as a trusted and reliable partner — particularly with allies. That is why Labour will seek to improve the country’s trade and investment relationship with Europe, as well as with India and the United States.”

To sweeten the relationship, there is the promise that Labour will speedily conclude a Free Trade Agreement with India, after 14 rounds of negotiation under the Tories failed to reach a conclusion.

Lammy says: “India, with which the United Kingdom is intimately connected through countless family ties, is set to be the world’s third-largest economy by 2030. But the British [Tory] government has still failed to deliver a long-promised trade deal with New Delhi.”

Militarising the ‘Indo-Pacific’

Labour commits itself to pushing ahead with the dangerous Aukus alliance, headed by the United States, to build nuclear-powered submarines designed to tie Australia further into a base for US influence in the southern Pacific.

Lammy says: “Realism also means recognising that the Indo-Pacific will be fundamental to global prosperity and security in the decades ahead, so the United Kingdom must strengthen its engagement with that region, as well. The country made a good start by helping establish Aukus, a nuclear submarine and technology pact between Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States.”

But Britain’s military adventures won’t end there, says Lammy: “… the British government should treat the co-operation of Aukus as a floor, not a ceiling. It must also build up other regional relationships, including by deepening its security partnerships with Japan and South Korea.”

The extension of the US-led network of military alliances to include Japan (in violation of Article 9 of the Japanese constitution) and South Korea is clearly directed at China. 

In 2023, Britain became the first European country to sign a Reciprocal Access Agreement with Japan, the most important military treaty between Britain and Japan since 1902. The agreement allows Britain and Japan to deploy armed forces in one another’s countries.

Also in 2023, Britain and the Republic of Korea (ROK or South Korea) agreed the Downing Street Accord, which among other areas of military co-operation proposed to: “Conduct joint UK-ROK sanctions enforcement patrols against DPRK (North Korea), to strengthen and support UNSC resolutions to limit funding to DPRK’s ballistic missile and nuclear programmes.”

This is a perilous path. The Korean peninsula is a potential flashpoint, with US bases in South Korea on the one hand balanced against a Mutual Defence Treaty between the DPRK and China on the other. The main maritime zones are the Yellow Sea, which borders the Korean peninsula and the People’s Republic of China, and the East China Sea, which is surrounded by mainland China, the Korean peninsula, the island of Taiwan and Japan.

As in the South China Sea, there are also competing maritime and territorial claims that, by error or design, could erupt into open conflict.

The Royal Navy has allocated two ships, HMS Spey and HMS Tamar, “to a five-year mission to the Asia-Pacific in support of the UK interests in the region, as well as supporting our friends and allies. Together the vessels mark the first permanent Royal Navy presence in the region since Hong Kong was returned to China a quarter of a century ago,” according to the British MoD.

This takes us to yet another potential hotspot, the Philippines, which is pursuing an aggressively pro-Washington turn against China over disputed territories in the South China Sea.

In January, the Philippines Department of National Defence and Britain’s Ministry of Defence signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) on military co-operation for a five-year period. The Philippines News Agency quoted from a British embassy statement: “The UK/Philippines MOU on Defence Co-operation is the cornerstone of our defence relationship.
It outlines the intent of our defence engagement for the next five years across a range of areas including military exercises, training and modernisation efforts. We can expect this engagement to focus on the maritime domain, Exclusive Economic Zone, hydrography and UK participation in future military exercises.”

In February this year, HMS Spey visited Manila where the British ambassador Laure Beaufils said: “The third visit of a Royal Navy ship to the Philippines in the past 18 months is a clear demonstration of our strengthening defence relationship. We deeply value co-operation and growing interoperability with the Philippines on maritime issues. This supports security and our shared commitment to upholding the rules-based international system, as well as of trade and environmental protection.”

The commanding officer of HMS Spey, Commander Paul Caddy, added: “It is excellent to visit Manila and improve our ability to work together with colleagues from the Philippine Navy and Philippine coastguard. This is part of an increasing level of engagement.

“With Spey recently taking part in the multinational exercise SAMA SAMA for the second time, it is clear that the relationship is only going to grow. The UK and Philippines firmly believe in, and promote the rules-based international system; we share an interest in upholding international maritime law and supporting a free and open Indo-Pacific.”

SAMA SAMA (which means “Together” in Tagalog) is a regular military exercise organised by the Filipino and US navies. In its October 2023 edition, Japan, Canada and Britain participated.

Another feature of the February mission was selling weapons. The Philippines under President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr has committed the poverty-ridden country to a decade-long $35 billion “Re-Horizon 3” programme to re-equip its armed forces.

The British mission included representation from the UK Defence and Security Exports organisation, “showcasing the wares of 13 premier UK companies in the defence sector, including BAE Systems, Thales and Leonardo.”

Britain is also a founding member of the Five Power Defence Arrangement (FPDA) including the former British colonies of Australia, Malaysia, New Zealand and Singapore. During a meeting in Singapore in May, the five agreed “to stage more complex military drills in the region this year involving drones, fifth-generation fighter planes and surveillance aircraft.”

“British representative Paul Wyatt, director-general for security policy, said Britain planned sending an aircraft carrier to the region in 2025 and had discussed how the tour might fit with the FPDA’s exercise programme,” according to Reuters.

Read the third and final part of this series in Monday’s paper.

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