IRELAND’S general election has finished with the two main parties of the Irish capitalist Establishment just two seats short of a majority big enough to form a coalition government.

In an election where near on half the electorate stayed away from the polls, Fianna Fail won 48 seats and Fine Gael 38. Sinn Fein won 39 seats, the Labour Party 11, the Social Democrats 11, and the Green Party lost all but one of its outgoing TDs. The number of independents elected was 23, while People Before Profit returned with three TDs.

To varying extent, all the parties likely to be included in a coalition government bear responsibility for the problems working people in Ireland face.

For many, employment is wanting or precarious, the value of wages is declining, and the cost of living is rising while energy prices are punitive, education is in crisis with large-scale absenteeism and large class sizes, housing is expensive and in short supply, the health system is in crisis with crowded hospitals and long waiting lists.

Foreign affairs played a relatively small part in the election. Nato and US use of Shannon airport is contrasted to a wide solidarity with Palestine, which has compelled Ireland to recognise Palestine as a state. Despite this, the triple lock that the US, Britain and the EU exercise over Ireland confines this to purely symbolic actions.

Fianna Fail, historically the more nationalist of the two main bourgeois parties that emerged after the establishment of the Irish Free State, has the edge on Fine Gael, and this is bound to be reflected in the allocation of cabinet posts.

Today, little distinguishes these two formations, and a condition of their coalition is that the two party leaders — Simon Harris and Micheal Martin — take turns filling the Taoiseach role.

Sinn Fein, despite its policy compromises and flip-flops over recent years, is still outside the charmed circle of potential coalition partners while the Labour Party has risen from the near dead.

Sinn Fein’s journey to the centre of Irish politics — tied to US influence and in a bid to show itself safe enough to join the government — has proved electorally unproductive, and in this election campaign, it tacked unconvincingly left to distinguish itself from the Establishment consensus. With its economic critique largely silenced, its main claim to radicalism remains its call for a border poll.

The Social Democrats, actually a more coherent and relatively progressive group, did better and are potential coalition partners. As always, the price will be compromises over policy and cabinet seats. The Labour Party remain the most amenable to the neoliberal orientation of the two main bourgeois parties.

Sinn Fein said a continuation of the Fianna Fail-Fine Gael coalition would be the worst possible outcome for the people of the country.

“It would be disastrous for people who need housing, for people who are on hospital trolleys, for people who are suffering with the cost-of-living crisis, for young people who are considering leaving Ireland because they see no future here.”

Its post-election strategy was to make contact with the Social Democrats and Labour Party, and this is supplemented with a proposal to contact “the other progressive TDs and groupings.”

There are not the numbers to constitute an alternative government coalition, but possibly enough policy agreement to develop a more credible parliamentary opposition.

The Communist Party of Ireland’s unforgiving analysis is: “The elections have reinforced the status quo and ensured that there will be no change in the foreseeable future. The coming period will prove to be very critical for the future direction of our country. The incoming Taoiseach, Micheal Martin, is deeply politically committed to meeting the needs of imperialism, both of the US and the EU.

“We need to mobilise now to prevent the removal of the Triple Lock on deployment of Irish defence forces abroad. Martin is committed to ever greater military engagement and involvement with EU defence and, if possible, to work closer with, if not outright join, Nato.

“The commodification of shelter [housing] will only intensify, and the stranglehold of vulture funds [global finance capital] will only tighten and become more intense.

“We need to continue to build solidarity with the Palestinian people, linking the use of Shannon airport to the US/zionist war against the Palestinian people.”

The Irish proportional election system is based on a complex form of the Single Transferable Vote that allows for multi-member constituencies and for votes to be ranked in order of preference.

Thus, in addition to the bigger blocs, local heroes of one kind or another, independents, and representatives of smaller parties form a rather heterogeneous grouping in the Dail Eireann, and some could provide some ballast for a new coalition government.

Big losers are the Greens, whose participation in the previous governments and their rampant opportunism fatally undermined their core support, while the ruthless operation of the Fine Gael-Fianna Fail alliance — where a very high proportion of the voters from these two parties placed the other coalition partner as second preference and where just 2 per cent opted for the Greens — cut the Green representation from 11 TDs to just one.

This was the price for the mild criticisms the Greens offered in an attempt to bolster their support. And this despite Irish voters taking climate change quite seriously.

More than 10 per cent of the transfers from the two coalition partners went to the Labour Party, which rather indicates in which camp Labour sits.

Sinn Fein, despite its compromises, still presents something of a challenge to the neoliberal consensus, and its voters are both more loyal and relatively less likely to transfer votes.

Seven out of 10 Sinn Fein second preferences go to other Sinn Fein candidates. Sinn Fein voters were more likely to give preference votes to the Social Democrats (about 10 per cent) or, more likely, nearly 15 per cent to the left-wing People Before Profit.

A particular feature of the proportional voting system is that it requires parties to calibrate their campaigns and the number of candidates in each multi-member constituency with a high degree of accuracy. In the previous election, Sinn Fein underestimated their support and failed to stand enough candidates to harvest all the votes coming their way.

Of course, this judgement call is harder for minor parties and several previously successful left-wing candidates, including firm anti-imperialist campaigners Mick Wallace and Clare Daly, lost out.

If the election count was lengthy, the formation of a government will be even longer. None of the possible permutations can lead to a government that might tackle the real-life problems of the Irish people. The decisive social base of the government coalition excludes a significant slice of working-class Ireland who did not vote and have little commitment to the system.

A postscript on proportional representation

The sophistication of the Irish electorate in giving effect to their preferences holds a lesson to British voters.

On Tuesday, Keir Starmer was wrong-footed when the Conservatives backed a vote on a routine Liberal Democrat motion in favour of proportional representation.

Labours’s whips failed to mobilise, and the vote went 138 to 136 on a less than 50 per cent turnout. Labour MPs voted 59 to 56 in favour of PR.

The motion offered a Bill “to introduce a system of PR for parliamentary elections,” but it will die of neglect. Labour Party conference delegates voted in favour of PR, but Starmer, with his contempt for democracy and party opinion, killed it.

Nick Wright blogs at 21centurymanifesto.wordpress.com.