WE HAVE entered a perfect storm and the worst is yet to come. 

A new peak in virus incidence and deaths, and in deaths of those needing serious medical intervention whose treatment will be delayed; a developing depression predicted to be the worst in 300 years; difficulty and uncertainties concerning our EU exit process. 

On top of all this is the worldwide most serious and dangerous matter of climate change. 

This is unparalleled crisis. Yet, as even our enemies know, “Only a crisis — actual or perceived — produces real change” (Milton Friedman). 

To get through this, never mind coming out better and stronger, we will need the correct tactics and, even more importantly, the correct strategy.

On virus transmission, what is needed is to employ all tactics to halt or slow down the virus — including lockdown, adequate social distancing in all areas and requirements for wearing masks with strong enforcement where transmission is a clear and present danger. All these tactics need to be employed rigorously at the same time. 

This will require schools being closed to all but the children of key workers. 

Transmission in schools has been clearly identified as a major source of infection. And from infected pupils it is obviously transmitted to others in the school, to family members and to elderly relatives living in the same household. 

However, when all the tactics employed together are used as a strategy, the R rate can be lowered and the total number of cases brought to a very low level. Combined with an effective track and trace system, this can end an outbreak.  

This should be run centrally by the relevant public health bodies and not by cronies, privateers and speculators. 

The way to do this is already obvious, but a quick analysis of the countries that have successfully conquered the virus would provide extra evidence for this method, with those deploying aggressive suppression strategies having lower deaths.

For example, the number of novel Covid-19 deaths is listed here by a number of countries: Taiwan 7, New Zealand 25, Vietnam 35, Thailand 60, Hong Kong 132, Cuba, 137, Norway 405, South Korea 727, Australia 908, China 4,634, UK 67,616. (Source: Statista December 22 2020). 

Regarding the EU, hardly any EU countries are among the list of those with best outcomes. 

And it is notable that despite the EU being ostensibly in favour of common policies, no common health position has been developed to send aid from those with the strongest health service to those at the other end of the scale, and only recently have some face-saving actions occurred.

However, independence does not stop the ability for international co-operation. In fact co-operation is predicated on it. 

If you are simply a region, what rights do you have to sign an international agreement to co-operate?

The EU exit agreement is undoubtedly a very great step on the road to independence but there is more that will have to be done. 

If we are to fully “take back control” of our country, we will have to address the question raised by James Meek in his book Private Island: Why Britain Now Belongs to Someone Else. 

Large swathes of our industry are foreign owned. From our utilities to Premier League football teams. 

As we have seen with car manufacturer Nissan, foreign ownership means they can threaten (or actually) up sticks and move to another country. 

Between 2011 and 2019 rail ownership moved from minority to majority foreign ownership. 

And to add insult to injury, some of this ownership is by other countries’ nationalised railways.

Nonetheless, we have made a great start to taking back full control of our industry. 

With regard to controlling climate change we are seeing a change in attitudes and in major part this has been due to the climate change protests. 

To control climate change will not be easy, but scientifically we know it can be done. 

So, a better new year and future ahead? The answer is in our hands. 

Hank Roberts is an NEU executive member. This article is written in a personal capacity.