IT IS hard to imagine Russian President Vladimir Putin getting much in the way of sleep right now. With Ukraine having seized the initiative and momentum after six months of conflict — six months that neither Putin nor his military advisers thought it would take to crush Ukrainian resistance to the Kremlin’s “special military operation” — Putin is being taught a salient lesson in the perils of hubris when it comes to waging war.

In his much-anticipated address to the Russian people — and by extension the world — in the aftermath of a stunning Ukrainian counteroffensive that succeeded in retaking 2,000 square miles of territory back from Russian control in north-east Ukraine earlier this month, Putin has claimed that Russia is “fighting the entire Western military machine.”  

Here, at least, he does have a point, what with the West coming to the aid of Ukraine with huge amounts of aid in military equipment, training, logistics and planning over these past six months. However, that he and his military chiefs failed to anticipate or factor this probability into their plans at the outset constitutes a major blunder, one that has been paid for in the lives of thousands of Russian troops.  

In declaring a partial mobilisation, involving some 300,000 reservists and former military personnel, and in placing the Russian economy on a wartime footing, Putin is testing domestic support for not only the conflict but also his own leadership at this most critical time in the country’s history.

The declaration, meanwhile, by four regions of Russian-controlled Ukrainian territory in the east and south to hold referenda on joining the Russian Federation with Putin’s support undeniably carries with it the whiff of desperation in the face of the significant shift of momentum on the battlefield from Moscow to Kiev.   

Let us be clear, though, this particular demarche was always inevitable given the trajectory of events since the Maidan coup of 2014. Ethnonationalism in Ukraine, despite the actual multinational and multicultural character of the country pre-2014, has sown dragon’s teeth, resulting in the recrudescence of the kind of profound enmity between its Russophobe and Russophone sectors of society not seen since WWII.  

Escalation is where we have arrived at six months on from the beginning of hostilities. The West’s determination to support Ukraine come what may is now being matched by Moscow’s determination to continue fighting to achieve its strategic objectives come what may. Putin and his advisers have reached the point of no return and the result is a great decoupling by Russia and the West from one other.  

The key point is that Putin’s announcement of an escalation of Russia’s military campaign has been taken from a position of weakness, not strength. Never has the Russian president appeared so isolated, evidenced in the significant step back in support for his military campaign by India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping at the SCO (Shanghai Co-operation Organisation) summit in Samarkand recently.   

Of course, Putin is well aware that none of the regions that vote in a time of war to join the Russian Federation will be internationally recognised, just as Crimea’s incorporation into mother Russia in 2014 has not been.

But he and his advisers and supporters clearly no longer require or desire the sanction of the West when it comes to Russia’s security or strategic interests. Putin has tirelessly pointed to the rank hypocrisy that abounds in Western capitals when it comes to such matters, and no right-thinking person could disagree.

Since the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 international law has only been observed by Washington and its allies and satellites in the breach. And, too, Putin is right to point out that the aforementioned’s stance towards Moscow ever since has been that of Rome vs Carthage — ie Russia “delenda est” (Russia must be destroyed). This malign stance of Western ideologues is the root cause of the current conflict in Ukraine, not any mad desire of Putin to recreate the “Soviet empire,” as claimed by his opponents.   

No matter, Russian forces in Ukraine are currently on the back foot and in war as in life, nothing succeeds like success. In embarking on this military campaign, underestimating Ukrainian willingness and ability to resist, Putin has served to undermine the morale of his own forces and helped bolster the morale of Kiev’s. The question as to whether Russia can regain the initiative and momentum on the ground and in the field is at present an open one.   

What cannot be gainsaid is that Russian arms have at this juncture been exposed as far less efficient and effective than many believed they were prior to the start of this conflict in February. A now demonstrable manpower shortage has combined with a distinct lack of operational integration between air and ground forces to validate the massive aid being provided to Ukraine by the West, from its own strategic standpoint.   

Could this conflict escalate to the point of going nuclear? The tone of Putin’s address suggests that this possibility is now clearly on the table.

What is not on or at the table at this point are any prospect of talks and diplomacy. That, for all of us, should be the most chilling aspect of a conflict and crisis that is no longer merely being waged over the future of Ukraine and Russia, but is now being waged over the future of Europe itself.