ONE week on from New Year’s Day, Bangladesh is set to hold its 12th general election. Close to 2,000 candidates from 28 parties are going to contest it. However, with 62 political parties including the main opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) as well as the Left Democratic Front (LDF) having boycotted the election, the incumbent Awami League (AL) is sure to win another term. 

The BNP has called for a strike on election day. The LDF, which includes the Communist Party, Socialist Party and Socialist Party (Marxist), among others, has also urged voters to boycott the election.  

Boycotting elections and rejecting election results is nothing new in Bangladesh. The AL itself had boycotted the 1996 general election in response to its demand for holding the election under a caretaker government being refused by the then ruling BNP. 

The constitution was subsequently amended by the BNP-led parliament to create provisions for holding elections under a caretaker government. 

All opposition parties, including the BNP, boycotted the 2014 general election as a result of a government crackdown on the opposition prior to the election period. The opposition’s demand for a caretaker government was not fulfilled this time either. The 2018 election saw the ballot boxes being stuffed overnight on the eve of election day.

The opposition parties have been facing multiple incidents of government crackdown ever since. Moreover, with the BNP supremo and former prime minister Khaleda Zia under an effective house arrest on corruption charges and her son Tarique Rahman in self-imposed exile, the BNP found its electoral possibilities doomed. 

The Sheikh Hasina government did not entertain the BNP’s demand for holding the 2024 election under a caretaker government. As the final nail in the coffin, over 20,000 opposition leaders and activists got arrested in the aftermath of a grand rally in Dhaka on October 28. A dozen were killed by the security forces in violence that erupted during street protests. No wonder they are boycotting the 2024 election as they see a free and fair election nearly impossible under the ruling AL.  

The boycott by the opposition parties, however, comes at the cost of lower voter turnout. Even though the constitution of Bangladesh does not require a minimum voter turnout for an election to be valid, it questions the participatory nature of the election and dilutes a claim of victory by popular mandate.

The AL is facing this challenge by fielding dummy candidates who are essentially their own party members contesting as independents against official AL candidates. At least 28 candidates elected in the last election with the Bengali boat symbol of AL have been found contesting with eagle or truck symbols.

Sheikh Hasina, the daughter of the late Mujibur Rahman, has already set the record of being the longest-serving prime minister of Bangladesh. Fit and fine to celebrate her fifth prime ministerial term, which is also her fourth term in a row, Hasina has posed herself as the rightful bearer of Sheikh Mujib’s legacy in the liberation of Bangladesh and the face of a modern digital Bangladesh at once.

But the crackdown on democracy under her rule has not gone unnoticed by the international community, especially the Western powers. Human rights allegations have marred the government’s image. In September, the US warned it would impose visa restrictions on Bangladeshis who undermine the electoral process. China and India, on the other hand, have expressed their backing for the Bangladesh government against external interference.

Just before the elections, Nobel laureate Dr Muhammad Yunus was sentenced with six months of imprisonment for violating labour laws, although he was later released on a conditional bail.

The Directorate for Inspection of Factories and Establishments had filed a case against Yunus and a few others from Grameen Telecom in 2021 for undermining workers’ rights. While there can be valid criticisms against Yunus of Grameen Telecom, many suspect this to be a case of vindictiveness on part of the AL which has long had an antagonistic relationship with the Nobel laureate due to his open criticisms of the Hasina government. The opposition has brought up the case of internationally acclaimed photographer Shahidul Alam, who was also arrested by the ruling government for his criticisms of the government, in this relation.

Another issue that made a lot of international headlines in the recent month is the garment workers’ protests. The month of November witnessed large scores of workers protesting in Gazipur, Savar, and Dhaka’s garment factory-dominated areas. Four protesting workers lost their lives as the administrative forces tried to suppress the protests with utmost brutality.

The economic condition of Bangladesh has not looked great over recent months. Even though Bangladesh lists among the world’s fastest growing economies, the country witnesses violent protests around cost of living and worker issues on a regular basis. The condition of the working class in Bangladesh is quite pitiable. With an official inflation rate over 9 per cent, a large proportion of the working class can hardly gather their daily necessities. The country remains heavily dependent on remittance earnings which have remained rather volatile in 2023.

The continuous protest by the garment workers and the violent attempts by the government to silence these protests have invited criticisms from the Western countries. This has been accompanied by a 7.45 per cent fall in shipment of garments. 

With the garment industry accounting for about 85 per cent of the country’s export earnings, this has not been good for the trade balance. The foreign exchange reserves have shrunk. Bangladesh’s overall external debt amounted to about $100 billion in the middle of the last financial year and its total debt service liability is projected to cross $3.56 billion in the next.

Three major rating companies including Moody’s have downgraded Bangladesh’s sovereign credit rating. With the national currency depreciated by about 28 per cent and the banking sector suffering from large volumes of non-performing assets, Bangladesh may as well be on the verge of a liquidity crisis.

With the election results now only a matter of time, what awaits Bangladesh under a continued AL governance remains the primary point of interest. The downturn of the economy will only worsen the democratic situation as the corrupt government officials will be milking the system even harder, causing further distress to the working class. 

One may hope for the seed of deep unrest and dissatisfaction among the working class to see a mass uprising sprout, bringing about a more democratic future for the country. One may as well fear fundamentalist groups exploiting that deep dissatisfaction, leading to even more doom and gloom.