YESTERDAY European leaders travelled to Beijing. What initially appears to be a purely diplomatic ceremony — the 50th anniversary of EU-China relations — is in fact shaping up to be a strategic meeting in a world that is fundamentally changing.

Historical context

Since Donald Trump’s return to the White House, it has become clear that Europe can no longer blindly rely on the US. The US is waging an aggressive tariff war, withdrawing from multilateral institutions, and using economic pressure as a geopolitical weapon.

Trump prefers deal-making over rules, and power over consultation.

For Europe, this poses a structural challenge — not only economically, but also politically and morally.

Over the past decades, the EU has built its prosperity on open world trade, co-operation and shared values. What the US is doing now — unilateral sanctions, withdrawal from the climate agreement, blocking the World Trade Organisation (WTO) — undermines that foundation.

Meanwhile, China is moving to the forefront as the hub of south-east Asia, which is increasingly becoming the economic centre of the world. The country is no longer just “the factory of the world,” but also an investment power, technology partner and diplomatic heavyweight.

The EU and China need each other

China is currently the EU’s third most important trading partner. Conversely, Europe is a crucial export market and investment destination for Chinese companies. But the mutual dependence goes beyond trade balances.

Europe’s energy transition — think solar panels, electric cars, batteries, rare earth elements — depends largely on Chinese production and supply chains.

Europe has every interest in not missing the economic train toward south-east Asia, becoming less dependent on the US, and building a stable relationship with China — even though there are fundamental differences on human rights and China’s stance on the war in Ukraine.

In a world where the US behaves ever more assertively and unpredictably, it is unwise to be drawn into a new cold war. Europe must make its own choices based on its own interests and values.

Conversely, China also has strategic and economic reasons to build a strong relationship with Europe.

The EU is one of China’s largest trading partners. European consumers offer a market for Chinese exports, while European technology and expertise are important for modernising the Chinese economy.

In times of Trump’s trade war, Europe serves as an alternative market that is less politically hostile than the US.

Geopolitically, Europe is also crucial for China because it can serve as a potential counterbalance to pressure from Washington. Now that the US under Trump is once again pursuing a hard, unilateral course, Beijing is looking for partners willing to follow a more independent path. Europe, with its commitment to multilateralism, rules, and diplomacy, fits that profile.

Grievances

Europe comes to the summit with a list of grievances. European officials accuse Chinese producers of dumping surpluses of cheap goods on their markets. China’s trade surplus with the EU runs into hundreds of billions of euros.

Europe is especially concerned that China’s overproduction of electric vehicles is pushing its own car industry out of the market. European manufacturers can barely compete with the low prices of Chinese EVs.

European companies also complain about barriers to accessing the world’s largest economy. On top of that, China is restricting exports of rare earth elements and magnets — crucial for European car production — which endangers supply and increases dependency.

Finally, there is also China’s refusal to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which is a sensitive issue in Brussels.
Ahead of the EU-China summit, Ursula von der Leyen has expressed unusually strong criticism of China.

She highlighted European concerns over unfair competition, such as state subsidies to Chinese companies and industrial overcapacity, and also criticised China’s support for Russia in the war against Ukraine.

China, for its part, also has many grievances. Beijing is currently conducting investigations into alleged dumping by European companies, targeting sensitive sectors such as dairy, cognac and pork.

China is outraged by the import duties the EU has announced on Chinese electric vehicles. According to Beijing, these tariffs are seen as protectionist and discriminatory, while they want their growing industry to compete fairly in the European market.

According to the CEO of Volkswagen, the fact that the Asian giant leads in the sector of new energy vehicles — including electric cars — is primarily due to China’s strong focus and significant investments in technological innovation.

China’s global frustration concerns the EU’s half-hearted attitude towards the US. China had hoped that Europe would adopt a more independent stance from Washington. In practice, however, the EU mainly seeks a balance: it does not want to blindly follow the US line but nevertheless cooperates on measures that increase pressure on China.

For example, the Dutch government, under pressure from Washington, has banned exports to China of the most advanced EUV machines produced by the Dutch company ASML.

The US has also successfully pressured European countries to exclude Huawei from the rollout of 5G networks.

Finally, Beijing continues to maintain its close relationship with Russia, which it considers strategically essential. China firmly denies that this contributes to the war in Ukraine, as Europe claims.

In the run-up to the EU-China summit, China has repeatedly emphasised its preference for constructive and and pragmatic cooperation with the EU.

From Beijing comes a call to focus on common interests — such as trade, climate, and technological cooperation — and to prevent differences of opinion, such as those on human rights or geopolitical tensions, from escalating into a rupture.

From rivalry to mature partnership

Since 2019, the EU has described China as a “partner, competitor and systemic rival.” This tripartite formula reflects the complexity of the relationship. But too often, the focus has only been on rivalry, under pressure from Washington — and that is a missed opportunity.

Both Europe and China want a multilateral world order that no longer revolves around a single superpower. Both have an interest in stable trade routes, international co-operation on climate and technology, and avoiding major conflicts. That shared interest forms an important basis for renewed co-operation.

The EU-China summit therefore offers a chance to recalibrate the debate — not by ignoring problems, but by building the relationship on mutual respect, mutual benefit and clear agreements. A mature partnership instead of an ideological struggle.

Possible steps forward

There are many files on the table where agreements could be reached — for example, on electric vehicles and co-operation around rare earth materials.

A key priority is the relaunch of a constructive economic dialogue between China and the EU. Discussions on market access, reciprocity, and industrial subsidies must be taken up seriously again.

At the same time, the EU must make clear that it is willing to take protective measures if no tangible progress is made in defending its economic interests.

In addition, both parties could explore whether there is room for a renewed framework for investment co-operation. This could involve putting elements of the earlier Comprehensive Agreement on Investment back on the table, but with revised conditions that better match the current context.

On global issues such as climate, AI governance and digital standards, the EU and China could also join forces. This demands political courage, but it offers concrete benefits for both sides — and for the rest of the world.

For Europe, it is important to speak with one voice and pursue an independent course, separate from the US. The EU must and may defend its own economic interests, but it should avoid falling into US-style protectionism or viewing China only as a threat.

Instead of joining the logic of new bloc formation, Europe should opt for a course of active diplomacy, economic co-operation, and strategic autonomy.

“If China and the European Union strive for win-win co-operation, then the new cold war cannot prevail,” said Wang Yiwei, director of the Institute of International Relations at Renmin University in Beijing.

China may never become an ally in the classical sense, but it can be a reliable partner in areas of mutual interest.

The summit in Beijing is an opportunity for Europe to redefine its role in the world: as a bridge-builder, a strategically autonomous player, and a champion of a fair and sustainable international order. For that, Europe needs China — and vice versa.